CA-BAM! will use innovative research and campaign tactics to engage the electorate and mobilize voters in the fight against congressional Republicans and the Trump agenda. CA-BAM! will be polling in key congressional districts to identify winnable issues and messages and develop comprehensive independent expenditure campaigns to elect Democrats and take back the House.
CA-BAM! will roll out polling data in red-to-blue House districts in Southern California before moving on to other red districts across the state. In addition to identifying and exploiting the Republicans’ vulnerabilities through issue contrast, CA-BAM! will seek to partner with other groups who can best utilize our research in their organizing efforts.
A Proven Record Identifying and Helping the Strongest Democrats Win
In February 2018, CA-BAM! released a forward-looking poll identifying Katie Hill as the strongest Democrat to beat Republican incumbent Steve Knight in the November general election. Our research showed that Hill’s non-profit background and intimate connection to the district resonated strongly with voters in CA-25. Indeed, our polling showed that likely primary voters, particularly women, shifted significantly towards Katie once learning more about her, indicating that a targeted primary strategy aimed at persuading and turning out those voters could be successful. Most notably, likely general election voters chose Katie Hill over her Democratic opponent by a 13-point margin in respective head-to-head match-ups against Steve Knight in November.
After CA-BAM! garnered significant local and national press – from the L.A. Times and the L.A. Daily News, to Roll Call and POLITICO – for its poll, Hill’s campaign and her supporters trumpeted the results. Shortly after Hill won, The New Yorker cited to our poll as evidence of Hill’s strength as a candidate. It is without question that our polling played an outsized role in helping build Hill’s momentum going into the primary.
$100,000 Joint Effort With Planned Parenthood Put Katie Hill Over The Top
In the final two weeks of the primary election, a critical time when voters really start paying attention, CA-BAM! partnered with Planned Parenthood L.A. on creating and disseminating powerful digital video ads that promoted Katie Hill and contrasted her record with Rep. Steve Knight’s dangerous positions on women’s health. These ads were viewed over two million times by likely voters in CA-25, with nearly two in three people viewing the entire ad. Over $100,000 was spent between our two organizations on digital video, mail, cable TV, and live calls. Despite being the underdog for most of the campaign, Katie Hill defeated her opponent by two percentage points – and our polling and collaborative paid media efforts undoubtedly helped Katie win.
FM3’s Polling Identified The Winner And Top Issues In Other Competitive CA Districts
Our polling partner, Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin, Metz & Associates (FM3 Research), also conducted polling in other top CA House districts, including CA-49, CA-45, and CA-10 where they successfully identified the winner of those respective elections. Most notably, in CA-49 (as reported by KPBS), FM3 Research released an independent poll showing Mike Levin in the lead but within the margin of error of Doug Applegate, the flawed 2016 candidate, while the remaining Democrats received little support. Applegate continued his decline through June, and local groups utilized FM3’s research to boost Levin to victory.
Highlights from our Unique Primary Polling in CA-25
- Rep. Steve Knight’s favorable rating is 39%, worse than Donald Trump’s rating (43% favorable)
- Knight’s biggest vulnerabilities come from his extremist record on women’s health and workplace issues, with nearly two-thirds of voters expressing “serious doubts” (65% serious doubts, 74% total doubts) about his health care record, and a strong majority of the district expressing serious doubts with his record on equal pay and discrimination in the workplace (61% serious doubts, 73% total doubts)
- Additionally, more than half of voters expressed “serious doubts” about Knight’s record on climate change, repealing the Affordable Care Act, tax cuts for millionaires and big corporations, and his anti-Californian record
- Katie Hill holds a 13-point lead over Rep. Steve Knight in a head-to-head general election matchup, leading Knight 53%-40%
Read more about CA-BAM!’s polling here